Libya has come a long way since Muammar Gaddafi’s death in October 2011, when Tripoli seemed ahead of Tunis and Cairo in its democratic transition. That early promise is a distant memory now. Tuesday’s attack on the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli by suspected Islamic State (IS) militants occurred against the backdrop of a country that appears to be falling apart — a spate of bombings and kidnappings in its west; the state split between two rival governments based in Tripoli and Tobruk, each with its own militia; the country fighting not one but two civil wars, against Islamists in the east and a complex multipartite battle in the west.
Two things appear to have gone wrong in Libya. First, each of its warring groups — Islamists, rebels who ousted Gaddafi and the old-guard — preferred to win first and then have democracy. Libyans have had no experience with democracy, and the absence of institutions saw five governments come and go since October 2011. Second, Western powers who midwived Gaddafi’s fall were too quick to abandon Libya. The September 2012 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, in which its ambassador was assassinated, sealed Libya’s predicament. Given the ground complexities that preclude any neat distinction between the “good” and “bad” guys, a military intervention is difficult. The just-concluded peace talks in Geneva are the only sign of progress in a long time, with the two main warring factions declaring a ceasefire, although a third party didn’t turn up.
In January 2015, Tunisia alone can boast a post-Arab Spring success. Cairo is back in the hands of a strongman, albeit elected, after the divisive rule of a democratically chosen president. Syria’s civil war has transmogrified into the larger battle against the IS. Shiite militiamen in Yemen, home to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, ousted the president before Tuesday’s deal to form a “salvation” government. For now, making peace seems as difficult as going to war in the failing post-Arab Spring states.
No comments:
Post a Comment